2022 Stats (Rank)
Points per game: 17 (30th)
Total yards per game: 283.5 (31st)
Plays per game: 59.7 (24th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 36.3 (15th)
Dropback EPA per play: -0.15 (32nd)
Rush attempts per game: 23.4 (30th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.21 (31st)
Coaching Staff
New Texans DC DeMeco Ryans is importing his top-ranked DVOA defense philosophies on to the Texans, and to that end the Texans have signed Sheldon Rankins, Hassan Ridgeway, Cory Littleton, Denzel Perryman, and Jimmie Ward as potential (mostly likely) starters to plug run defense holes up the middle. Will Anderson will need to come in and immediately play like a star EDGE for this team to hit the most rosy of scenarios, but given how poorly Lovie Smith had schemed up the run defense in his two years in Houston it wouldn’t be surprising to see an immediate improvement.
On offense, this figures to be another Kyle Shanahan scheme -- returning it to the initial site of the crime -- as the Texans install Bobby “PFF” Slowik at offensive coordinator. Players have mentioned in interviews that the offense is more multiple, and we can likely expect a play-action emphasis in year one with fullback Andrew Beck likely to be involved often. The Texans don’t really have an easy-to-profile No. 1 at receiver, and Shanahan attacks do tend to be run-heavy in certain formations and field zones. Slowik will have his work cut out for him trying to get the Texans up to an attack anyone is scared of, but the good news is he won’t have to do much to best last year’s horrendous offense under Davis Mills and Pep Hamilton. You know, the one that used Jeff Driskel as a running quarterback. That one.
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Passing Game
QB: C.J. Stroud, Case Keenum, Davis MillsWR: Nico Collins, Xavier HutchinsonWR: Robert Woods, Noah BrownWR: Nathaniel Dell, John Metchie IIITE: Dalton Schultz, Teagan Quitoriano, Brevin Jordan
Davis Mills is working with the ones at times in camp, but it looks more than a little obvious that he’s being showcased for a potential trade at this point after the Texans brought in Stroud and Keenum this offseason. Keenum is probably America’s consummate backup quarterback at this point of his career, respectable enough to win with as long as he doesn’t lose any of his athleticism, and he has experience in play-action heavy schemes. Stroud has impressed early at camp and earned reps with the ones, and it would be surprising if he wasn’t the starter at the onset of the season.
What can we expect out of the passing game with Stroud? I’m a little optimistic. I think Stroud played the best game any college quarterback had all season against Georgia, and his upside cases were being slept on quite a bit after S2 madness infected the discourse. The Texans likely won’t throw all that much, at least early in the season, but you can’t look at the roster of players they have on the field and say they’re not NFL-caliber. Stroud to me projects as someone who will mix in the odd QB2 week with a couple of rookie mistake games as he develops further. He’s not a fantasy focal point at this time, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he improved quickly enough to be on the radar. He makes for a nice third quarterback stab in best ball.
When it’s time to draft Nico Collins in a draft at any point in the last three years, I know we’re officially into late-round stab territory. This year he has a better upside case than he has in the past with Brandin Cooks officially deposed to Dallas, but know what you’re getting into. The flashes have been flashes. The consistency has not been there. Robert Woods does have experience with this style of offense in Los Angeles and isn’t far removed from being a much more productive receiver. The low floors on Houston’s main outside receivers have them as WR4 targets at best for me, but I don’t think a third-year breakout for Collins is unprecedented. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Woods bounced back to 75 percent of what he was in Los Angeles and became a thorn in Collins’ side.
The upside pick here, to me, is Dell. Dell has the squeaky wheel narrative already in his favor after Stroud reportedly wanted the Texans to draft him. There is no question about it: We don’t have a long history of successful NFL players at Dell’s size. I think there could be some Marquise Brown in his game, though, and smaller guys that can be hidden from press coverage by a good coordinator can be fantasy contributors. He’s going to have some uphill battle to get on the field in all likelihood, and I see him as a tough roster early in the season. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see him leading fantasy waiver columns in Week 5 or so, and the Texans appear to be legitimately excited about what they’ve seen from him early in camp. John Metchie III is probably the fourth receiver at this point -- it’s impossible to say what he is after missing all of last season with lymphoma and losing much of the offseason to a hamstring strain. He’s probably a worthwhile real life slot receiver at worst, but we’ve got to see some positive camp momentum to get me excited about drafting him.
The easy draft pick of the group, to me, is Dalton Schultz. He comes in without much competition at tight end for snaps, he’s out-targeted every other player on the roster over his last two NFL seasons. The 49ers offense did not exactly struggle to involve George Kittle in his prime. I think a TE1 fantasy finish is well within the boundary of expectations, and I wouldn’t be completely surprised if he manages to be a middle-pack TE1 behind the obvious big guns. Schultz could wind up with 100 targets pretty easily. The only thing that concerns me is how effective he is without Dak Prescott, who was a pre-snap savant. We simply don’t know where Stroud is in that spectrum on the NFL level yet. I still like him as a low-end TE1 pick.
Running Game
RB: Dameon Pierce, Devin Singletary, Mike Boone, Dare OgunbowaleOL (L-R): Laremy Tunsil, Kenyon Green, Juice Scruggs, Shaq Mason, Tytus Howard
Pierce certainly lit up the highlight reel last year with the Angriest Run Of The Year, and he broke 42 tackles per SIS charting in just 14 games, which was just outside the top 10 in the NFL. Houston’s new Shanahan-inspired offense is likely to put Pierce in more zone-based schemes. The Dolphins, 49ers, and Jets -- each of whom were Shanahan or Shanahan-influenced on offense last year -- all finished in the top 10 in outside zone rate per PFF. The Texans last season finished in the top 10 in calling Power and Inside Zone. I think the previous Texans scheme is a better fit for Pierce’s strengths, but he’s good enough that it may not matter all that much.
His main competition for carries is Devin Singletary, who looks like a more natural third-down back fit than Pierce. I know, I know, Pierce had a lot of targets last year. A lot of those came from Davis Mills checkdowns and weren’t necessarily calls to take advantage of Pierce’s skill set. Pierce is a fine receiver, but Singletary has had at least 40 targets in every season of his career to-date. Not as washed as Rex Burkhead, I like Singletary to get a fair amount of run here and that is what keeps me from being fully on-board the Pierce RB2 hype train. Ogunbowale is the only other returner from last year and is a passing-downs back only. Boone has had an intriguing history but still hasn’t really been able to take advantage of an opportunity for playing time -- he also does not have so much guaranteed money that he has to make the roster.
The Texans, as usual, created turnover on the offensive line. Bringing in Mason was a solid short-term play, but Mason’s PFF grades dove to their lowest numbers since his rookie season and the Texans handed him a fat contract extension. Great linemen can play into their mid-30s ... is a guy that has been dumped for almost nothing two offseasons in a row great? I have my doubts. Kenyon Green’s rookie season was an unmitigated disaster and the team doesn’t have a real challenger for the job. Second-round pick Scruggs is competing with Scott Quessenberry and Jimmy Morrissey, but as a second-round trade-up it’s hard to believe the Texans won’t give him every opportunity to win the job. There’s a reasonable world where all this comes together and the Texans have a solid interior line, but nothing I’ve seen so far has me excited about it. Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard are a stellar pair of bookend tackles, though Tunsil’s run blocking numbers are not quite up to par with his savant-like play as a pass protector. Howard is entering the final year of his rookie contract and is a summer extension candidate after two years of being shuffled to left guard for no real reason.
Win Total
The Texans are getting -145 to go under 6.5 wins and are +120 to go over 6.5. I think six is about the right number for them based on what we’ve seen so far this offseason, but I do like the upside of the over 6.5 more than the under. The AFC South is not in a great place right now, you can’t really feel confident about any team other than the Jaguars -- and even then they have defensive issues that could use solving. I could see the Texans riding a last-place schedule and some good coaching to a seven-win season. The thing we most often underrate as outsiders, in my opinion, is the impact of a great coaching change. If Ryans is the coach I think he is, he’ll be a humongous upgrade on Lovie Smith and David Culley and put seven wins in the range of outcomes for the Texans.
